The portfolio average conceals the portfolio
A study can be tracking to plan while a third of its sites underperform, because the strong sites absorb the shortfall. The aggregate hides exactly the sites an operations team could still help.
How sites are executing now
A portfolio enrollment number is an average, and averages are where operational problems go to hide. Underneath one healthy-looking figure sit sites that activated late, sites carrying a retention problem, sites generating queries faster than a monitor can close them — and sites doing none of that, quietly carrying the study.
This experience is about the present tense. It ranks and profiles investigator sites on what they have actually done, indicates where dropout, protocol-deviation and data-quality exposure is accumulating, compares countries and regions, and runs operational scenarios — so a clinical-operations team can decide which sites to look at this week. Where enrollment is heading is a different question, and it belongs to a different experience.
The Premise
Trial performance is uneven by nature. Sites differ in activation pace, staffing, patient access, retention and data discipline — and those differences are operational facts a team can act on this week, not projections to be debated.
A study can be tracking to plan while a third of its sites underperform, because the strong sites absorb the shortfall. The aggregate hides exactly the sites an operations team could still help.
Rising query age, slipping data quality, an accumulating deviation pattern — these move before enrollment does. Read late, they become the explanation rather than the warning.
Ranking sites is useful precisely because it is provisional. It orders a review queue; it does not qualify an investigator, approve an activation, or decide anything about a site.
Startup pace, monitoring burden and retention behave differently by country and region. Seeing that concentration is what turns a list of weak sites into a structural conversation.
Scope Within the Family
This is the family’s single owner of how sites are executing now. The question of where enrollment is heading — and how far to trust that answer — is a separate discipline with a separate owner.
This experience owns
This experience does not own
Enrollment appears on this page only as observed recruitment performance — a current execution signal used to explain how a site is doing.
Forward outlook — sibling experience
Future enrollment trajectory, forecast methodology, rolling-origin evaluation and forecast-risk interpretation belong there. The underlying prototype behind this page does contain an enrollment-prediction view, but within the portfolio family it is supporting context only — forecast ownership and methodological rigour sit with the dedicated sibling.
Downstream — where this eventually leads
Observed site execution shapes the enrollment outlook, and that outlook eventually becomes a clinical-supply requirement. Kit demand, depot and site inventory, expiry, shipment and resupply are that experience’s domain and appear nowhere on this page.
Reading this page correctly
Everything shown is generated synthetic data. Study, site, investigator, country and region identifiers are synthetic labels. The dataset holds site-level aggregates — the underlying event records are rolled up before analysis, and the patient-population table contains site-level estimates such as eligible-population size and monthly patient flow rather than any patient record. Dropout and deviation risk are site-level operational indications, never statements about an individual. Nothing here is a medical, protocol, safety or regulatory judgement.
Decision Framework
Nine stages, each tagged with what kind of thing it is. Almost all of them are present tense — that is the point of this experience.
Functional Coverage
The prototype contains twelve screens running against one seeded synthetic estate. Six are presented as motion showcases below; all twelve are listed here, including the enrollment-prediction screen, which is shown in its correct place rather than hidden.
Showcase 01 · Portfolio position
Current / observed / modelled context
Current state across the whole synthetic site estate. Every figure describes where sites stand today, not where recruitment is heading.
Business question
Where is current operational site exposure concentrated, and where should the clinical-operations team look first?
Recorded from the running prototype on synthetic data. Site, investigator, country and study identifiers are generated labels; no real site, investigator or sponsor is represented.
Key signals on the screen
Decision supported
Which slice of the estate — a region, a site type, or a specific risk band — deserves the first operational review.
Captured synthetic state
12 synthetic studies, 275 active sites of 300, 104 high performers against 99 low performers, 4 critical-risk sites, average dropout risk 47.8 and average deviation risk 33.5 on a 0–100 scale, 227 sites carrying critical or high recommendations, and a portfolio health score of 75.
Interpretation & human-review boundary
A triage view over synthetic data at a point in time. It carries no operational, clinical or regulatory standing, and it qualifies no site.
Showcase 02 · Ordering the review queue
Current / observed / modelled context
Current-state ranking built from observed execution. This orders a review queue — it is not a selection, qualification or activation decision.
Business question
Which sites appear operationally stronger or weaker under the modelled criteria?
Recorded from the running prototype on synthetic data. Ranking positions are modelled operational signals, not endorsements of any site.
Key signals on the screen
Decision supported
Which sites to prioritise for operational review, and which cohort a given site sits in relative to comparable sites.
Captured synthetic state
300 ranked synthetic sites scored on a weighted 0–100 composite, with top-ten and bottom-ten cohorts isolated and the full ranking available as an export.
Interpretation & human-review boundary
Decision support only. The ranking performs no site selection, no site activation, no investigator qualification and no regulatory or clinical suitability determination. Where the prototype labels a site as recommended, that means a modelled review candidate.
Showcase 03 · One site, assembled
Current / observed / modelled context
Observed history for a single site. The recruitment series shown here is what the site has actually done; the forward trajectory question belongs to the Enrollment Forecasting sibling.
Business question
What current operational signals explain how a specific site is performing?
Recorded from the running prototype on synthetic data. The site, investigator and staffing details shown are generated for demonstration.
Key signals on the screen
Decision supported
Whether a site's position is explained by recruitment, screening efficiency, staffing, startup or data quality — and therefore what to raise with it.
Captured synthetic state
300 searchable synthetic sites. The captured example resolves to an academic medical centre in Africa with a moderate-performer classification, a site performance score of 38.7, strong historical enrollment and staff capacity as top drivers, and high screen failure and a long startup delay as top risk factors.
Interpretation & human-review boundary
Site-level operational analysis on synthetic aggregates. No patient record is shown or inferred, and no clinical, medical or investigator judgement is made.
Showcase 04 · Operational risk indication
Current / observed / modelled context
Indication, not prediction of any individual. Both models score sites — each row is a site within a study, never a person — and both are trained on synthetic operational history.
Business question
Which sites show elevated operational-risk signals that deserve review?
Recorded from the running prototype on synthetic data. Both screens operate at site level; the prototype's own headings describe them as site-level intelligence.
Key signals on the screen
Decision supported
Which sites warrant a retention conversation or a monitoring and training focus, and which specific factor to open that conversation with.
Captured synthetic state
Average dropout probability 0.30 and risk score 47.8, with 30 critical and 58 high dropout sites. Average deviation probability 0.30 and risk score 33.5, with 30 critical and 60 high deviation sites across eight deviation categories.
Interpretation & human-review boundary
These are site-level operational risk indications on synthetic aggregates. They do not predict that any individual will withdraw, make no patient-safety or medical determination, and perform no protocol interpretation, deviation approval, compliance certification or regulatory judgement.
Showcase 05 · Monitoring burden and geography
Current / observed / modelled context
Current operational quality signals and their geographic distribution. This is monitoring workload intelligence, not data validation or compliance assessment.
Business question
Where are data-quality and monitoring concerns concentrated, and how does operational performance differ by country and region?
Recorded from the running prototype on synthetic data. Country and region names are used as synthetic operational groupings only.
Key signals on the screen
Decision supported
Where to direct monitoring capacity, and whether a quality or performance pattern is site-specific or geographically structural.
Captured synthetic state
Average query rate 0.15, average query age 11.5 days, missing data rate 5.02% and source-data-verification issue rate 7.08%, with monitoring findings across four visit types, and ranking comparisons spanning 35 synthetic countries and 8 regions.
Interpretation & human-review boundary
Operational monitoring intelligence only. It is not source-data verification, not a data-validation or database-lock readiness assessment, and it makes no GCP compliance, audit-readiness or regulatory-inspection determination. Country performance here means site operations, not supply position — country inventory belongs to the Supply Planning sibling.
Showcase 06 · Assumption and response
Current / observed / modelled context
Baseline is the current modelled state; the scenario is a declared operational assumption; the result is a projected consequence held against that baseline, never replacing it.
Business question
How does a defined operational assumption change site exposure, and which interventions deserve human review?
Recorded from the running prototype on synthetic data. Scenario outcomes are modelled illustrations, not predictions about a real study.
Key signals on the screen
Decision supported
Whether a proposed operational change is worth the resource it would consume, and which recommendations to work first.
Captured synthetic state
Under the captured scenario, average site ranking moves to 50.5 from a 46.5 baseline, average monthly enrollment to 8.3 from 7.8, average dropout risk down to 45.5 from 47.8, deviation risk to 32.5 from 33.5 and overall risk to 16.7 from 24.7, with critical-risk sites unchanged at 4 and a modelled timeline delta of −10 days. The recommendation set holds 4 critical, 223 high and 25 medium items.
Interpretation & human-review boundary
Scenario outputs are modelled consequences of a declared assumption, not forecasts. Recommendations are advisory: nothing here directs an investigator, changes a protocol, activates or deactivates a site, contacts a patient, or executes any recruitment or operational action.
Method, Stated Plainly
The screens are titled with the word AI throughout. That is the prototype’s own labelling, and it is not a reliable guide to what each layer actually does — so each one is named accurately below.
Why no model scores are published here
The prototype does publish per-model evaluation figures inside its own terminology screen, and they look strong. They are deliberately not reproduced on this page, because of how the labels are constructed: the performance, dropout and deviation classes are derived by banding quantiles of the same synthetic signals the classifiers then learn from. A high score therefore measures how faithfully a model reproduces a deterministic rule on generated data — not clinical or operational predictive power. Quoting those numbers as evidence of capability would be misleading, so the models are named and their scores are not. Nothing on this page should be read as validated prediction, clinical validation, real-world accuracy or generalisable performance.
Supporting Intelligence
These run against the same seeded estate but are not presented as showcases — in one case because the capability is owned by a sibling experience rather than by this one.
The underlying prototype does include an enrollment-prediction view, with per-site forward projections and target-attainment probabilities. Within this family it is treated as supporting context rather than a capability this page owns. Forward enrollment trajectory, forecast methodology, baseline-versus-model comparison and rolling-origin evaluation are owned by Clinical Enrollment Forecasting & Site Risk Intelligence, and are deliberately not reproduced here.
Direct inspection of the underlying synthetic tables — site master, investigator master, screening and enrollment history, dropout and deviation history, monitoring visits, query management, staffing, startup and payments — so any figure elsewhere in the prototype can be traced to the rows behind it.
A plain-language glossary of the concepts the prototype uses, together with an in-application model registry that publishes each candidate model's evaluation on the synthetic dataset. Those figures are discussed in the method note below rather than reproduced as performance claims.
Capabilities
What it does
Scores every site on a weighted 0–100 composite built from nine normalised components and orders the estate accordingly.
Decision supported
Which sites to review first, relative to comparable sites.
Evidence used
Declared component weights led by enrollment performance and patient-population context, with data quality, staffing, experience, startup speed and risk contributing the remainder.
What it does
Joins site metadata, investigator context, staffing, recruitment history, risk trends and data quality into one site record.
Decision supported
What explains an individual site's current position.
Evidence used
A per-site join across the synthetic site, investigator, staffing, screening, enrollment, deviation and query tables.
What it does
Tracks what each site has actually screened and randomised over its history, with the screen-failure trend alongside.
Decision supported
Whether a site's recruitment problem is volume or conversion.
Evidence used
Twenty-four months of synthetic monthly screening and enrollment history per site.
What it does
Produces a per-site dropout probability, 0–100 score, risk band and named contributing factors.
Decision supported
Which sites warrant a retention focus.
Evidence used
Supervised classification over synthetic site retention history — scored per site within a study, never per patient.
What it does
Produces a per-site protocol-deviation probability, score, band and contributing factors, with categories split by severity.
Decision supported
Which sites warrant a monitoring or training focus.
Evidence used
Supervised classification over synthetic deviation history, again at site level.
What it does
Aggregates query rate and age, missing data, source-data-verification issues and monitoring findings into an operational quality view.
Decision supported
Where to direct monitoring capacity.
Evidence used
Deterministic aggregation over synthetic query-management and monitoring-visit records.
What it does
Compares average site ranking and performance across countries and regions.
Decision supported
Whether a weakness is site-specific or geographically structural.
Evidence used
Geographic aggregation of the site ranking composite across the synthetic country and region master.
What it does
Applies a declared operational assumption to the current baseline and reports the projected movement across each headline metric.
Decision supported
Whether an operational change is worth its cost.
Evidence used
Deterministic scenario deltas applied to baseline aggregates, with the baseline retained and displayed alongside.
What it does
Applies rules keyed on observed site signals to produce prioritised, reason-carrying recommendations.
Decision supported
Which sites to act on and what to raise.
Evidence used
A fixed rule inventory spanning overall risk, recruitment, retention, deviation, data quality, startup, staffing, monitoring focus and reallocation.
System Design
A seeded pipeline from synthetic study and site generation through operational event history, aggregation and scoring, into a review surface — with the deterministic layers and the learned layers kept separate.
Built in Python with Streamlit, pandas, NumPy, scikit-learn, Plotly, SQLite and ReportLab, running locally against a deterministically generated synthetic estate. There is no connection to any clinical trial management, electronic data capture, or randomisation and trial supply management system.
Lab Standards
Site-performance language sits close to decisions that carry real professional consequences for investigators and real regulatory weight for sponsors. The boundaries below are therefore stated explicitly rather than assumed, and the prototype carries its own demo disclaimer on every screen.
Honest Status
The prototype runs locally against a seeded synthetic estate. It is not deployed, not published as an application, and not available to run.
These are deliberate boundaries of a synthetic-data prototype, not pending features. The site-level framing of dropout and deviation risk in particular is a decision about what the data can honestly support, not a limitation waiting to be lifted.
What This Demonstrates
Building this experience exercised the following, end to end.
Turning a portfolio average into a per-site operational question, and keeping the present tense — current execution — distinct from the forward outlook a sibling experience owns.
Ranking sites on declared, weighted components and carrying the contributing factors through to every risk indication, so an output can be argued with rather than merely accepted.
Holding dropout and deviation risk explicitly at site level, and refusing the much more marketable — and much less honest — patient-level reading of the same output.
Separating operational monitoring from regulatory validation, ranking support from site selection, and modelled scenario consequence from forecast, with clinical-operations authority left with a person.
This experience opens the Clinical Trial Supply Chain Intelligence family. The forward enrollment outlook built on the execution shown here belongs to the forecasting sibling, and the clinical-supply response that follows belongs to Supply Planning & Resupply Intelligence.